• Animation: our data journalism highlights

    Updated: 2012-12-31 18:37:35
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  • Fiscal cliff stalled on spending cuts

    Updated: 2012-12-31 18:07:45
    Negotiators are still arguing over the potential need to find $30 billion in spending cuts to pay for the medicare ‘docfix’ according to a Congressional aid cited by Reuters.

  • The worst chapter of 2012 closing?

    Updated: 2012-12-31 17:56:36
    The Greek debt negotiations were painful but they were unavoidable. The fiscal cliff is pure stupidity. A deal today would be a reason to celebrate. Now, if I could get a deal on the NHL lockout it would be a perfect day.

  • Tentative fiscal cliff deal very close – RTRS

    Updated: 2012-12-31 17:44:11
    Emerging deal would raise taxes for those earning more than$ 400K Higher taxes for families earning more than $450K Would include permanent alternative minimum tax fix and extend unemployment insurance for a year Deal postpones sequester, includes $600B in revenue Majority of Senate Republicans expected to support tentative deal Sticking point in deal is sequester [...]

  • Fiscal cliff: Q&A

    Updated: 2012-12-31 16:39:07
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  • Budget deal may not halt sequester – CNBC

    Updated: 2012-12-31 15:53:22
    CNBC says budget talks are expected to continue all day, citing sources. They say any deal may not turn off the sequester.

  • Sydney welcomes 2013 with incredible fireworks display - video

    Updated: 2012-12-31 15:39:22
    Australia ushers in the new year in style with a spectacular fireworks display in Sydney

  • Economists expect UK to lose AAA credit rating

    Updated: 2012-12-31 15:10:13
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  • Eurozone live: Angela Merkel warns crisis is 'far from over'

    Updated: 2012-12-31 10:58:10
    In her new year message, the German chancellor says the economic environment will be more difficult in 2013, and urged patience as Europe's debt crisis is resolvedGraeme Wearden

  • Big Picture Not That Bad

    Updated: 2012-12-30 23:39:27
    A summary of video contents can be found in the first 3:45 of the video. The bullish slant to the market is presented between 11:20 and 22:01. If cliff talks bring weakness, possible support is outlined between 3:45 and 11:20. After you click play, use the button in the lower-right corner of the video [...]

  • 2012 in review

    Updated: 2012-12-30 21:48:02
    This was generated automatically by WordPress, but it’s a nice New Year’s pic!  Season’s greetings!  Ellen The WordPress.com stats helper monkeys prepared a 2012 annual report for this blog. Here’s an excerpt: About 55,000 tourists visit Liechtenstein every year. This blog was viewed about 170,000 times in 2012. If it were Liechtenstein, it would take [...]

  • S&P 500 Is Down Since End of Q1

    Updated: 2012-12-30 16:14:11
    Video Coming Soon Has the uncertainty in Europe and Washington impacted the financial markets in recent months? Yes, although up year-to-date, the S&P 500 has actually lost ground over the past 90 calendar days.

  • "Cliff Hanger: Why Republicans Don’t Care What the Nation Thinks" by Robert Reich

    Updated: 2012-12-29 09:30:35
    Are House Republicans – now summoned back to Washington by Speaker John Boehner — about to succumb to public pressure and save the nation from the fiscal cliff? Don’t bet on it. Even if Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell cooperates by not mounting a filibuster and allows the Senate to pass a bill extending the [...]

  • "A Step towards Reviving a Cooperative EU: Unemployment Support" by John Weeks

    Updated: 2012-12-29 08:30:00
    For almost three years the focus of discussion and policy action in the European Union, and especially the so-called euro zone, has been unrelentingly reactionary, bank bailouts, budget cuts, contracting economies and growing unemployment. Such depressing news and reactionary politics have driven many, myself included, to doubt the wisdom of ever having started down this [...]

  • Sticking To Disciplined Approach

    Updated: 2012-12-28 22:27:17
    One of the most effective ways to manage risk during high-stress market conditions is to draw lines in the sand when the markets are closed. When the market is closed, especially very early in the morning, you can make rational decisions about areas of possible support. Early Friday morning when the markets were closed and [...]

  • "First do no harm – no subsidies for Šoštanj" by Andrew Watt

    Updated: 2012-12-28 18:42:05
    To help stop the planet warming to a disastrous extent Europe must increase the price of energy paid by energy consumers. A huge redirection of private and public investment is needed. And unless we are extremely successful in increasing the energy efficiency of our economy, we will almost certainly also need schemes to organise a [...]

  • Risk Management

    Updated: 2012-12-28 14:51:09
    For CCM clients, we have a spreadsheet with numerous levels of possible support for all our holdings. Levels are green when our position remains above support. Levels turn red when our position is trading below support. The levels are based on numerous methods and time frames (ranging from monthly to 15 [...]

  • The Keynesian Stimulus Spending Fallacy

    Updated: 2012-12-28 14:39:28
    It’s a truism of pop Keynesian economics that consumer spending drives the economy; if spending slows in a recession, government must make up the difference. In reality, consumer spending merely signals what consumers want; producers may be unable or unwilling … Continue reading →

  • Important Support For Risk-On Rally

    Updated: 2012-12-28 11:37:14
    The S&P 500 held at 1401 intraday Thursday. The range between 1393 and 1401 remains important. Above 1393, we will exercise some patience. Below 1393, a more defensive and bearish bias would be warranted. To see a LARGER version of the CHART above click here. Our level of concern is reflected in the [...]

  • Metrics for the “Ever Expanding Government”

    Updated: 2012-12-27 15:50:35
    : Econbrowser Analysis of current economic conditions and policy Investment and the business cycle Main December 27, 2012 Metrics for the Ever Expanding Government” The latest in a series examining persistent macroeconomic myths 1 Reader Bruce Carman writes total gov't spending in the US , including personal transfers , is equivalent to 54 of private GDP This is merely the latest installment in demonstrations of innumeracy in defense of reducing the size of government . Time to look at some data . First , even if we believed outlays as a share of non-government GDP was a reasonable measure , could we replicate the 54 number cited . No Figure : 1 Ratio of government current expenditures all levels divided by non-government GDP GDP minus government consumption spending blue and divided by

  • Bears Gaining Momentum

    Updated: 2012-12-27 15:45:22
    Our market models are beginning to show signs of concerning deterioration. We are monitoring the markets very closely and stand ready to convert to a more conservative/bearish stance if warranted. Today’s weakness has brought us to a point where the markets now have very little margin for error. If time permits, we will make [...]

  • Weakness Not Overly Concerning - Yet

    Updated: 2012-12-26 19:02:27
    Below is an updated version of the chart we presented Monday. The chart below is as of 1:48 PM ET Wednesday, when the S&P was down 7 points. The chart has not broken down in a meaningful way. When the ratio rises, stocks are in favor relative to bonds (risk-on). When the ratio falls, [...]

  • Investment and the business cycle

    Updated: 2012-12-26 15:53:42
    : Econbrowser Analysis of current economic conditions and policy Dragged to the Fiscal Slope Main December 26, 2012 Investment and the business cycle I fell a little behind on blogging with the holidays , so today I'll outsource to Calculated Risk The graph below shows 3-quarter averages of the contribution to GDP growth of each of the four categories of private investment . Red denotes residential fixed investment , green equipment and software , blue nonresidential structures , and dashed purple changes in . inventories Source : Calculated Risk Bill McBride explains the : significance This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the economy , equipment and software is generally coincident , and nonresidential structure investment lags the business cycle . The

  • Global Triangle Leans Bullish For Stocks

    Updated: 2012-12-24 14:31:27
    Over the last few weeks, we have been watching numerous risk-on vs. risk-off triangles. The chart below shows a triangle breaking in the bulls’ favor. When the ratio rises, stocks are in favor relative to bonds (risk-on). When the ratio falls, bonds are in greater demand relative to stocks (risk-off). It [...]

  • Daily Uptrend Still Intact

    Updated: 2012-12-21 19:40:25
    The chart below is messy, but helpful; the clusters of blue trendlines show areas of possible support. The S&P 500 has not made a significant lower low, which means the daily bullish trend is still in place (as of 2:30 PM ET).

  • "An Unemployment Insurance System for the Euro Area as an Automatic Stabilizer: Feasable and Desireable?" by Johannes Schweighofer

    Updated: 2012-12-20 07:00:54
    A particularly warm welcome goes to economic stabilization policies (i.e. smoothing the economic cycle) which seem to be back at the EU stage after having been away for more than two decades. Surprise, surprise! What has happened? I.) Rompuy Report to European Council meeting on 13/14 December 2012 The Gang of Four (van Rompuy, Barroso, Juncker, [...]

  • Fiscal Cliff: Time to Call Their Bluff

    Updated: 2012-12-19 17:43:46
    The “fiscal cliff” has all the earmarks of a false flag operation, full of sound and fury, intended to extort concessions from opponents.  Neil Irwin of the Washington Post calls it “a self-induced austerity crisis.”  David Weidner in the Wall Street Journal calls it simply theater, designed to pressure politicians into a budget deal: The [...]

  • Public-Private Partnerships (P3); misc.

    Updated: 2012-12-18 21:04:51
    (1) This post’s image:  Some elegant and amusing culture-jamming on an iPod ad on a NYC bus shelter, captured earlier this month.  I’ve been walking around saying, “I bad!” since I saw it (Michael Jackson meets Steve Jobs?), thinking of … Continue reading →

  • Nouriel on Bloomberg: U.S. Growth Will Be “Barely 1.7%” in 2013

    Updated: 2012-12-18 16:38:59
    On Bloomberg Surveillance, Nouriel said that U.S. growth would barely register 1.7% in 2013 and pointed to a high risk of the U.S. going over the fiscal cliff: “If we do so, the market reaction is going to force the two sides to reach an agreement.” Asked whether he’s bullish on the U.S., Nouriel responded, ”In [...]

  • Fiscal Cliff Notes

    Updated: 2012-12-16 18:33:52
    If the Bush tax cuts were only “tax cuts for the rich,” as we’ve been told over and over, then what does it mean to keep them for those earning less than $200,000/$250,000? Keep what? Have you noticed how the word “millionaires” has morphed into the phrase “millionaires and billionaires”? Doesn’t anyone remember that a [...]

  • "Answering Commissioner Rehn" by Andrew Watt

    Updated: 2012-12-14 11:18:51
    Commissioner Olli Rehn had a piece in the Financial Times a few days ago defending the austerity course and claiming that expansionay policies in Germany would not help. My response is below: Europe must abandon discredited policies From Mr Andrew Watt. Sir, Olli Rehn, EU commissioner for economic and monetary affairs and the euro, defends [...]

  • Nov/Dec Editorial Note, Adidas and Sweatshops, Co-opoly, etc.

    Updated: 2012-12-13 19:30:49
    (1) Nov/Dec Issue:We’re still trying to get back on schedule with the magazine;  we didn’t make much progress toward that goal with the Nov/Dec issue, but I think we’ll catch up some with the Jan/Feb issue.  Anyhow, the Nov/Dec issue … Continue reading →

  • Nouriel: Politics Will Define 2013

    Updated: 2012-12-13 16:22:36
    Speaking with Christine Freeland of the New York Times, Nouriel Roubini described the shift from a market focus on risk in 2012 to a worldwide recognition that political action—European elections, partisan U.S. fiscal battles, Middle East unrest, Chinese and Japanese political transitions—will shape the economic and financial landscape in 2013, contingent on unconventional policy responses [...]

  • U.S. government profits from AIG bailout

    Updated: 2012-12-13 08:06:13
    : . Econbrowser Analysis of current economic conditions and policy Conditional Inflation Targeting in Effect Main December 13, 2012 U.S . government profits from AIG bailout A key player in the financial crisis was insurance giant AIG , which sold a huge volume of credit default swaps supposedly protecting buyers of mortgage-backed securities from losses due to default . But AIG had nowhere near the capital necessary to honor these guarantees when things went bad , and much of AIG's liabilities ended up being picked up by the Fed and the Treasury . On Tuesday the U.S . Treasury announced that it had sold the last of the common shares in AIG that it had acquired as compensation for its emergency assistance to AIG and reported that the Treasury and the Fed had together earned a profit of

  • "Britain needs the EU more than Vice Versa!" by Henning Meyer

    Updated: 2012-12-13 00:04:17
    …at least in economic terms. Eurosceptics like Nigel Farage of UKIP are always keen to string together an argument chain that goes broadly like this: “Why should the rest of the EU grant the UK the same market access as before without any of the responsibility in case the country decides to leave? Because they [...]

  • Conditional Inflation Targeting in Effect

    Updated: 2012-12-12 21:50:09
    : Econbrowser Analysis of current economic conditions and policy The Slow Growth in Investment Main December 12, 2012 Conditional Inflation Targeting in Effect Nearly a year ago , Jeffry Frieden and I called for Conditional Inflation Targeting Today , policy seems to have turned toward that direction . From today's statement from the FOMC the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1 4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1 2 percent , inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal , and longer-term inflation expectations

  • The FOMC Doubles-Down ON QE3

    Updated: 2012-12-12 21:28:17
    Well, the Fed did what I expected it to do (see previous post), but it didn’t wait until after the fiscal cliff negotiations had been completed as I had hoped it would. My fear was that the politicians would take too much comfort in the Fed’s support of the economy and lose some of the [...]

  • "Europe is not working!" by David Lizoain

    Updated: 2012-12-11 10:20:12
    Yesterday, Joseph Stiglitz spoke at a conference in Barcelona. He noted that the euro zone is designed in such a way that when young people from Greece, Ireland, etc. emigrate, they are no longer liable for the debts accumulated by previous generations. This emigration shrinks the tax base and makes it harder to service public [...]

  • The Fiscal Cliff and the FOMC

    Updated: 2012-12-09 23:40:20
    Well, it looks like our leaders have chosen not to put a fence at the top of the fiscal cliff, but to count on an ambulance at the bottom to clean up the mess. We only have three weeks to go before we find out how messy it will be. I don’t have an informed [...]

  • Congratulations Heisman Trophy Winner Johnny Manziel

    Updated: 2012-12-09 22:50:22
    Go Johnny football! Go Aggies! Cotton Bowl Next.

  • The Devil in the Details of Today’s Employment Report

    Updated: 2012-12-07 20:34:00
    146,000 net new jobs were created in November according to the establishment survey of payroll employment. However, 49,000 were taken off the totals reported for the previous two months. If I were a conspiracy theorist, which I’m not, I would point out that the revisions of previous months were usually positive before the election with [...]

  • From North Dakota to Scotland: Exploring the Public Bank Option

    Updated: 2012-12-07 16:30:42
    The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and the Bank of Scotland have been pillars of Scotland’s economy and culture for over three centuries.  So when the RBS was nationalized by the London-based UK government following the 2008 banking crisis, and the Bank of Scotland was acquired by the London-based Lloyds Bank, it came as a [...]

  • Capturing the Multinational Dragons’ Gold

    Updated: 2012-12-07 14:51:36
    As medieval dragons do, the dragon in the Beowulf epic sleeps on a pile of gold. With magic sword and shield, Beowulf kills the dragon and, mortally wounded, distributes the gold to his grateful people. Today’s multinational dragons sleep not … Continue reading →

  • Nouriel Explains More Positive Outlook on Greece to WSJ

    Updated: 2012-12-06 19:29:28
    The recent Greek debt buyback announcement and apparent softening of German rhetoric on the troubled eurozone (EZ) member-state represents a short-term boost to morale, Nouriel Roubini told the Wall Street Journal recently, but does not change fundamental flaws in the structure of the EZ, and within Greece’s economic model. Roubini had previously held that Greece [...]

  • "Adding Austerity to Recession" by Manuel Aleixo

    Updated: 2012-12-05 10:25:59
    Comment on Professor Maria Joao Rodrigues’ paper on “Mapping Future Scenarios for the Eurozone” In the early days of November 2012 the Greek Prime Minister, Antonis Samaras, announced that the approval of a new austerity package by the Parliament, essential for receiving a disbursement from the “troika”, was a condition for remaining in the euro. [...]

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